However, the rating on SingPower may come under pressure if the contribution
of the company's international business to the group's cash flows and assets
increases significantly, such that it becomes the key rating driver. This
could be due to SingPower's material expansion in markets and businesses that
we view as being of lesser quality than the T&D business in Singapore. The
Australian business currently contributes about 60% of SingPower's total
EBITDA and the Singapore business contributes the rest. We assess the credit
profile of the group's Australian business to be in the 'bbb' category and
that of the Singapore business to be in the 'a' category.
We believe that there is a "high" likelihood that the government of Singapore
(AAA/Stable/A-1+; axAAA/axA-1+), through SingPower's parent, Temasek Holdings
(Private) Limited (AAA/Stable/A-1+; axAAA/axA-1+), would provide timely and
sufficient extraordinary support to SingPower in the event of financial
distress. However, we believe that government and shareholder support is not
absolute.
We assess the stand-alone credit profile of SingPower to be 'a-'. In
accordance with our criteria for government-related entities, our view of a
"high" likelihood of extraordinary government support is based on our
assessment of the following SingPower characteristics:
-- Its "important" role as the holding company for SPPA, which owns and
maintains Singapore's electricity T&D assets, and SP PowerGrid Ltd., which
manages SPPA's assets; and
-- Its "very strong" link with the government.
We expect SingPower's cash flow adequacy measures to weaken in the next one to
two years as the company undertakes a tunnel project in Singapore to replace
aging underground transmission cables and lay new cables to support the growth
in electricity demand. The project is estimated to cost about Singapore dollar
(S$) 2 billion, and we expect SingPower to fund about 70% of the cost through
borrowings. We estimate SingPower's ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to
debt to drop to 11%-12% for the next two years, compared with about 13% for
the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012.
Nevertheless, SingPower's diverse high-quality cash flow, liability management
efforts, and solid access to financial markets mitigate the impact of the
company's weaker cash flow and profitability measures.
Liquidity
SingPower's liquidity is "adequate," as defined in our criteria. We expect the
company's liquidity sources (including cash, FFO, and credit facilities) to
exceed its uses by at least 1.2x over the next 12 months. Our liquidity
assessment is based on the following factors and assumptions:
-- Cash and cash equivalents and available lines under committed bank
facilities fully cover debt maturities over the next 12 months.
-- EBITDA is predictable, which is supported by a favorable regulatory
framework.
-- We believe net liquidity sources will remain above cash requirements
even if EBITDA declines by 20%.
SingPower has supportive banking relationships and has good access to debt
capital markets in Singapore and Australia.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that SingPower will continue to
have stable cash flows and will pro-actively manage its liabilities in the
next couple of years while pursuing growth investments.
We may lower the rating on SingPower if we lower the likelihood of
extraordinary government support by one category to "moderately high." We
could also downgrade SingPower if its stand-alone credit profile weakens by
one notch to 'bbb+' due to either of the following:
-- SingPower departs significantly from its strategy of staying in its
core T&D business in a stable regulatory environment; or
-- The contribution of SingPower's international businesses to the
group's cash flows and assets increases materially, such that it becomes the
key driver of the rating; or
-- SingPower's cash flow adequacy and liquidity deteriorate, or the
company's tunnel project faces material delays and cost overruns, such that
its FFO-to-debt ratio heads toward 10% or below.
Conversely, while the probability of an upgrade is low, we could raise the
rating if we raise the likelihood of extraordinary support by one category to
"very high" or SingPower's stand-alone credit profile improves by three
notches.
Related Criteria And Research
-- Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, Sept. 18,
2012
-- Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, Dec.
9, 2010
-- Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating, Oct. 1, 2010
-- Business And Financial Risks In The Investor-Owned Utilities Industry,
Nov. 26, 2008
-- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/text-p-summary-singapore-power-ltd-091825372--sector.html
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